Fewer Tennessee Grads Heading to College, but Future Trends Signal a Rebound
Fewer Tennessee public high school graduates are enrolling in college immediately after graduation, according to a new report from the Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC). For the Class of 2024, the college-going rate fell to 56 percent, down from 2023 levels.
Despite the decline, long-term projections show Tennessee could be on track for growth. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) forecasts that by 2041, while much of the nation faces declining enrollment in what experts call the “enrollment cliff,” Tennessee may see a 15 percent increase in high school graduates.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) forecasts that by 2041, while much of the nation faces declining enrollment in what experts call the “enrollment cliff,” Tennessee may see a 15 percent increase in high school graduates.
Steepest Declines Among Minority and Low-Income Students
While the statewide college-going rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points in 2024, the declines were not evenly distributed.
Hispanic/Latino males saw the sharpest drop at 1.1 percentage points while Black or African American males also experienced significant decreases.
Among economically disadvantaged students, only about one-third enrolled in college, compared to nearly double that rate among students who were not economically disadvantaged.
Post-Secondary Credentials Boost College Enrollment
For the first time, THEC analyzed the impact of high school students earning post-secondary credentials before graduation.
Among the findings, graduates with a credential enrolled in college at a rate of 81.7 percent, compared to 56 percent overall. However, just 1 percent of the 2024 graduating class fell into this category.
This highlights a gap in access and opportunity according to the THEC report.
Economic Factors Shaping Students’ Choices
THEC’s report also included labor market insights that help explain why some students are choosing work over college.
Between 2019 and 2021, Tennessee saw a rise in job availability and wages. As a result, the number of 12th graders going to college fell by 22 percent while enrollment in community and technical colleges dropped by 25 percent.
For many graduates, immediate employment became more attractive than pursuing higher education according to the report.
Statewide Recommendations and Initiatives
Tennessee is rolling out new initiatives aimed at expanding access to higher education and reversing the decline in the college-going rate.
In June 2025, THEC launched a statewide college access and outreach strategy through the GEAR UP TN grant, funded by the U.S. Department of Education.
Tennessee also introduced the nation’s first statewide direct admissions system, which automatically admits eligible high school graduates to public colleges and universities—removing application barriers and broadening access.
